2026 is emerging as a structural turning point for global trade and the ocean container freight industry. It is the year that will be remembered for slowing demand growth alongside increasing vessel supply and available space. This excess capacity will have long-standing effects in shipping. Most carriers have the financial strength to absorb short to mid-term downturns, but it will take time for the market to balance itself.
This article is my take on the key factors expected to shape ocean freight and shipping in 2026.
The State of the Ocean Freight Market
This has been a buyer’s market for the past few months, and it will remain so for most of 2026. Although some fluctuations are expected, transpacific freight rates are projected to remain below 2025 levels overall. Global port handling is predicted to grow by 1.5% for 2026 and vessel fleet growth is at 3.2%.
In 2025, most General Rate Increase (GRI) attempts failed to hold beyond the first one or two sailings, forcing carriers to reduce rates shortly afterward. The absence of a pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush, combined with weakening demand and rising capacity continues to put downward pressure on freight rates. Additionally, reshaping alliances and shifting individual carrier strategies means that more is at stake to maintain profitability. As a result, rate volatility will be here to stay.
Carrier profits will continue to deteriorate. Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs) that opt for long-term fixed rates should consider their overall strategy this year to take advantage of the expected low-rate levels throughout the year. It is always good to diversify, so having some portion of the volumes locked with fixed rates and the remaining half on the spot market makes more sense, especially for mid-sized importers. Rates will spike periodically, but to keep those rates at certain levels, carriers need to manage capacity rather than relying on demand. As a result, there will be artificial pushes with many blank sailing schemes.
Re-Opening of the Suez Canal
After months of speculation, the re-opening of the Suez Canal as a shipping route may finally happen this year. CMA and Maersk are already considering using the canal rather than sailing around of the Cape of Africa. If carriers resume Suez Canal transits, voyage times fall and equipment cycles normalize. That releases capacity back into the system without a single newbuild delivery.
This is good news for the industry, but with the already excess capacity in play in the industry, a potential Suez Canal re-opening will only add further pressure on rates. According to Drewy’s analysis, if all carriers resume Suez Canal transits in both directions, this will drag down contract rates in 2026 by 30% to 35%.
Geopolitical Challenges and Improvements
While the expectation around the Suez Canal re-opening and a potential end of the Russia-Ukraine War can be celebrated as potential positives to be weighed against ongoing geopolitical risks, there’s a lot of uncertainty remaining. Areas of uncertainty include Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, tensions between China and Taiwan, ongoing U.S.–China trade dynamics, possible limitations at the Panama Canal, and broader Middle East security concerns. These may all continue to influence routing decisions, insurance costs, and available capacity. The end result is a year where geopolitics continues to drive volatility more than long-term demand growth.
U.S. Tariffs
Tariff negotiations with almost all major countries have been finalized and the temporary pause on China tariffs provided a period of stabilization. As a result, 2026 has begun with reduced tariff-driven volatility, allowing importers to plan with greater confidence and fewer sudden policy disruptions. Compared with recent years, tariff-related uncertainty is expected to play a more limited role in shaping supply chain decisions throughout 2026.
AI Adaption
With the rapid enhancements in the past 10 years (with the last six years being the fastest growth period for digital infrastructure in shipping), transportation management systems (TMS) and real-time tracking and tracing tools became mainstream and embedded in many systems as shippers increasingly want instant access to information.
Digitalization in shipping has had many positive effects including opening a broader field for small and medium-sized companies to compete just as much as their larger rivals. A similar trajectory is expected with the lightning-fast developments in artificial intelligence (AI). The shipping industry will start shifting towards use of AI across supply chains and logistics. Those who don’t embrace it will fall behind.
AI is no longer limited to visibility tools. It is increasingly being used to support forecasting, routing decisions, exception handling, document processing, and communicating directly with systems through simple prompts. While it will not remove disruption or volatility, it will help companies respond to a crisis faster and operate more efficiently. Over time, this trend is likely to reduce the value of purely transactional services and increase the importance of planning, data, and integrated logistics capabilities.
The Big Picture
Overall, 2026 is likely to be defined less by dramatic shocks and more by structural pressure. Excess capacity, potential Suez Canal normalization, evolving geopolitics, and accelerating technological change will shape freight behavior more than pure demand growth. Additionally, this might be the year that overall industry profits will see a start of downward trend which might last longer than many think.
