As we enter 2026, the outlook for container imports to the U.S. has gotten a lot worse. Forecasts say that import volumes will stay below their 2025 levels well into the spring. This persistent weakness is a result of larger trends in global trade, ongoing uncertainty about government policy, and changes in how major retailers and manufacturers handle their supply chains.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker say that U.S. container imports at major ports will stay low year over year until at least April 2026, even though they went up a little bit from month to month at the beginning of the year. There is a small increase in shipments expected in January compared to December, which is the first time this has happened in six months. However, the total will still be lower than it was in January 2025.
The expected pattern for the first few months of 2026 makes this trend very clear: February, March, and April are all expected to have fewer imports than the same months last year. Predictions say that there will be 1.86 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in February (down about 8–9%), 1.79 million TEUs in March (down about 16–17%), and about 1.97 million TEUs in April (down almost 11%).
So, what is causing container imports to stay weak?
Trade Policy Headwinds and Changes to Stock
One big reason is that trade policy is unclear, especially when it comes to tariffs and rules for imports. Businesses that sent shipments early in 2024 and early 2025 to avoid possible tariff hikes have since sold off their stock, which has made demand for imports weaker. Because shipments were sped up artificially, there is less need for high import volumes, which means that ports have less cargo to process at the start of the year.
Tariff worries have continued to affect cargo owners and retailers, making them think about where to get their goods as they weigh the costs of buying goods from other countries against changing policy risks. Even though some tariff increases were put off or cut back, the uncertainty that has lasted has made people less likely to import aggressively in late 2025 and early 2026.
Responses from Retailers and the Supply Chain
Retailers, in particular, are adapting to changes in what customers want and how much stock they have. Many retailers have changed their focus to selling off their current stock before ordering more goods because inventories are still high after months of frontloading imports. This has made the effects of weaker demand worse, which has caused containerized imports to slow down a lot.
Shipping activity is also slowing down because of global economic factors, such as slower growth in some trading partners and ongoing logistical problems. Seasonal patterns like the post-holiday lull and the Lunar New Year will have some positive effects on shipments in January, but they won’t be enough to make up for the overall trend of lower year-over-year import volumes through spring.
How to Get Through a Changing Trade Environment
Even though there are some soft spots, the long-term outlook for container shipping isn’t all bad. Some experts think that things will start to get better later in 2026 or by 2027, when global demand stabilizes and trade policy becomes clearer. But in the short term, the industry is getting ready for import volumes to stay low compared to the strong levels seen in 2025.
These forecasts show supply chain managers, carriers, and port operators how important it is to be flexible. They need to be able to change their operations, prices, and inventory strategies to fit a world where policy, economics, and changing global trade flows may change the way traditional import peaks happen.
