The Panama Canal is one of the world’s most strategic waterways and is pivotal to shipping, logistics, and the global supply chain. After all, until the building of the Panama Canal, ships had to transit around South America to get from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, or vice versa, adding weeks or months to voyages. When the Panama Canal was launched, voyages were quicker, more efficient, and more cost-effective.
Weather has always affected the Panama Canal, but in the last decade, extreme weather has really affected the Panama Canal. In 2026, the El Niño weather phenomenon has returned – this year with so-called “Super El Niño” conditions. Already, this extreme weather is affecting the Panama Canal in 2026.
El Niño has brought drought conditions to the Panama Canal
In recent years, we have reported on drought conditions affecting the Panama Canal. When drought conditions exist, water levels in the Panama Canal drop – sometimes precipitously to dangerously low levels.
This year, the Panama Canal has not seen nearly the normal level of rain during the wet season. Lake Gatun, one of the primary water sources for the Panama Canal’s water levels, has seen its freshwater levels drop – a familiar sight in recent years.
How the Panama Canal is reacting to this year’s Super El Niño-fueled drought conditions
The Panama Canal Authority, which operates the canal, started restricting ships passing through the canal. Whereas the Panama Canal normally sees 40 ships transit per day, the Panama Canal Authority has dropped the permitted level to 34 ships per day as of this week. And due to the expected worsening of drought conditions to some of their worst levels in years, on September 15th, more restrictions will be put in place and only 32 vessels will be allowed to pass through the Panama Canal each day.
With this reduction in ship capacity, the Panama Canal will see longer transit times, and more overall delays. Safety always comes first, and this year’s Super El Niño has raised fears that some of the worst drought conditions in history will be seen.
For oversized Panamax vessels, the capacity on the Panama Canal will be even lower, which will see further delays for shipping voyages through the area.
What shippers are watching
Shippers are wondering whether worse weather conditions as a result of this year’s Super El Niño will continue materializing, or if some of the worst weather predictions are overhyped.
Additionally, shippers are looking at other areas of shipping disruption. While the shipping industry is no stranger to annual drought conditions in the Panama Canal, this year there are already delays on the other side of the world due to conflicts in the Middle East.
Hurricane season is here in the U.S. Shippers are also watching if extreme weather and hurricanes affect port operations in the U.S. and Central America. Combined with disruptions in the Panama Canal, this would be devastating to shipping operations.
The irony is that to begin 2026, water levels had recovered in the Panama Canal, and there was some optimism that this year would be more normal. That belief has, so far, been proven wrong.
