It was another week of chaos on the U.S.-Iran war front, with President Trump restarting military action against Iran earlier in the week before calling off further attacks and hinting at a peace deal. Indeed, news reports on Friday indicated that the pieces of an agreed-upon peace deal were coming together faster than ever, after numerous false alarms over the past two months. With this development, shippers are wondering what a peace deal means for them.
The big picture if a peace deal is reached
With a potential deal closer than ever, the consequences – good and bad – for the shipping industry, are not yet fully realized, but there are several possible scenarios to take into account. Overall, a peace deal is likely to be a big positive for shipping and trade because chaos has reigned during the period of the war.
One thing is absolutely clear: a return to the world before the Iran war is unlikely. A return to the world pre-October 2023 when violence flared between Hamas and Israel is unlikely. However, any degree of more stability than what the shipping world faces today is better for everyone.
It is also clear that getting things “back to normal” will be gradual and take time. The actual signing of a peace deal will not be the end of uncertainty and chaos.
The Strait of Hormuz
Since the war started at the beginning of March 2026, every day has been marked by chaos in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian military and its proxies have signaled from day one that they intended to use the strait as leverage against further military action by the U.S. Commercial vessels were attacked and struck by missiles in the strait, making it unsafe for commercial vessel traffic.
This affected many shipping companies and has led to further uncertainty in shipping and global trade. With a peace deal, the issue of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to be resolved for the better. One big potential negative, however, is that the Iranians are demanding control over the Strait of Hormuz, a demand which the U.S. has rejected. If the U.S. were to agree to let Iran control the Strait of Hormuz, this would represent continued uncertainty as the Iranians could charge high fees to use the strait, could shut it again, could limit vessels to certain flagged countries, etc.
Oil and energy markets
One market that everyone is watching is oil. Indeed, global energy markets have been most acutely affected by the U.S.-Iran war since day one. Global oil prices skyrocketed and remain considerably higher. Retail gasoline and diesel prices have reached new records amid the conflict.
Conventional wisdom says that the peace deal, if enacted, will benefit oil and energy markets, resulting in more stability and lower prices across the board. However, there remain numerous factors to consider, including damaged energy infrastructure, geopolitical concerns even if hostilities end, and supply/demand disruptions.
For oil prices to return to pre-war or lower levels, energy infrastructure must be able to produce the same or more capacity of oil, diesel, and other petroleum-based commodities. The ramp-up after the war ends will likely be a lot longer than overnight.
Shipping routes and options for carriers
Long before the war started, when Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, the Red Sea crisis started. That crisis knocked out the Red Sea as a reliable shipping route. The Iran war further complicated this with concerns in Hormuz and the broader region.
Unless Iran fully instructs all of its military proxies in the Middle East to not attack any commercial shipping traffic in any region, it is likely that we will go back to the pre-2026 Red Sea crisis scenario – where things are improving compared to 2023 and 2024 but still active in terms of shipping risks.
Even if shipping routes came onboard, there will likely be delays as pent-up demand for the hundreds of ships in the region is released. Delays will, therefore, likely persist beyond the signing of a peace deal.
