Navigating Global Port Congestion: What North American Exporters Need to Know in 2025

2024 will be remembered as one of those years in shipping with very heavy congestion globally. From Asia to Europe, from Caribbean to Latin America, most of the major global transshipments hubs have been going through significant bottlenecks. It all started with Red Sea crisis. Additionally, weather-related disruptions in the Asia and Caribbean regions, labor issues in the U.S. & Europe, insufficient infrastructure in West Africa and parts of South America, and a surge in general volumes were the main factors behind all the issues.

So, going into the rest of 2025, I would like to focus on current congestion data, global trends and what U.S. exporters can expect in the new year in regard to cargo fluidity. 

Congestion is still impacting key transshipment hubs like Cartagena (90+ ships in port  and anchorage in mid-December 2024), Freeport (21+ container ships in queue as of December 2024), and Kingston (50% above 2020 volumes and only 9% schedule reliability) – these are particularly important hubs for U.S. Gulf exporters that are shipping pretty much anywhere that goes via transshipment.

The situation is not very different at destination ports either. For example, numerous ports are still severely congested today. In Antwerp, just in February, export truck gates got restricted, and the terminal temporarily stopped newly additional import and transshipment cargo. In Germany and France, labor strikes are still an important factor for adding further pressure to ongoing congestion. In Asia, in February, for Northern China ports, vessels were waiting two days, while for ports in Shenzhen, the berthing time was up to five days. Ports like Busan and Singapore are still moderately congested. 

For the rest of 2025, based on the current outlook, I am expecting a mild improvement but continued risks.

During the TPM25 conference that MTS Logistics attended last week, carriers were very clear that they will reinstate the Red Sea route only if they are 100% sure of vessels’ safe passage. Based on current geopolitics, this may not be really possible before the second or third quarter of the year. Carriers were also advised that it won’t be as easy as turning on a switch. The transition will be slow, and it may take up to 90 days to transition from the Cape of Good Hope to Red Sea routings.

Weather events will continue to impact shipping in 2025. So, customers will continue to face delayed transit times, longer waits at transshipment ports, schedule changes at origin ports, and vessels omitting ports. Key trade lanes that will be impacted are U.S. to South America (transshipment services in the Caribbean/Central America regions), Europe (transshipment services in Antwerp/Rotterdam), and West Africa (transshipment services in both the Caribbean and/or Northern Europe regions). Since most of the Asia services are direct, delays in Asia will be related to destination ports.

In 2024, carriers learned how to operate better with service changes and blank sailings, and that will somewhat reduce the impact of congestion this year. While carriers like MSC are focusing heavily on more direct port calls, the Gemini Cooperation (Maersk/Hapag) has been investing the last 1 to 1.5 years on planning and operating through a hub model. For sure, these three carriers have plans on improving the cargo fluidity despite the current shipping environment.

This year, in contrast to 2024, we are not expecting a volume rush into US when we compare with 2024. In 2024, North American Port container volumes rose %11.2 (September being the highest with %14.4 increase), as shippers front-loaded freight and amid trade uncertainty. According to S&P Global, US container volumes will decline by %4.5 in 2025. This will take away some pressure from those inbound heavy ports and t/s hubs.

Mitigating further congestion-related disruptions in 2025.

How can the congestion effects can be mitigated? I think there are some essential points to follow for shippers:

1. Forecasting for advance planning.

2. Adding a buffer time to your shipments estimated arrival time. 

3. Accessibility to multiple ocean carriers with real time market information.

4. Setting up the right expectations with your overseas customers in regard to market realities.

5. Not to base your cost on the lowest ocean freight but to a median freight based on 2-3 different ocean carriers.

Finally, in 2025 port congestion will remain as a challenge for U.S. shippers to deal with.

Exporters that are exporting through transshipment ports that are congested or through direct services that are calling those congested ports in their service strings will continue to face delays, omits and reduced reliability.

We are cautiously positive that the situation will be better than last quarter of 2024. For shippers, it will be important to focus on what they can control. So, planning in advance, choosing the right partners that present options, doing an actual cost analysis, and keeping customers educated will be the key to overcome the challenges faced in 2025.