Recently, the U.S. imposed new tariffs on Turkey, likely due to an ongoing political dispute. These tariffs may affect the global economy.

The world economy is complex and ever-changing. When a country elects a new government, they may experience ground-breaking economic effects that reverberate into other countries and around the world. Economists all over the world continue to study the effects of political upheaval on the global economy. The effects of the tariffs between the U.S. and Turkey are no exception, and may have effects beyond those two countries.

Turkey has a choice: release Andrew Brunson or face high tariffs.

Relations between the U.S. and Turkey have swung wildly over the past decade. However, a significant and recent development has been the U.S. decision to increase steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey.

Some speculate that the U.S. government has imposed increased tariffs on Turkey as a direct consequence for that country choosing not to release Andrew Brunson, an American pastor. Brunson was arrested in Turkey for terrorism-related charges in 2016. Per the Wall Street Journal, tariff increases that went into effect last Friday are a substantial escalation bringing much higher costs for Turkey.

Turkey is now in a perilous financial situation, due to the U.S.’s recent tariff actions, and other numerous factors. These tariffs have contributed to Turkey’s current economic turmoil, as steel and aluminum are considered notable exports for Turkey.

One hope for the future: human nature.

All is not hopeless for Turkish economic prospects. A nation’s economy is never set in stone, no matter what the current development. For Turkey, positive change can occur based on other factors that outweigh the negative effects of these new tariffs. Additionally, U.S. and Turkish diplomatic and economic relations, strained due to this current political dispute, may yet improve. Only time will tell.