Recently, rising fuel costs have become a significant challenge in logistics. Increases in diesel and marine fuel prices are directly impacting both trucking and ocean freight expenses.
This is mostly due to recent tensions in the Middle East, especially near Iran. The region is vital for the world’s oil supply. Even the threat of issues around the Strait of Hormuz can drive up oil and diesel prices.
How does this impact trucking?
Trucking is highly sensitive to diesel prices, as fuel is one of their largest operating expenses. When truckers quote their rates, they will include a base rate and a fuel surcharge (FSC). Therefore, when fuel costs rise, truckers must adjust their rates as well.
Under normal conditions, fuel surcharge levels are typically stable, enabling truckers to offer all-in rates (drayage and FSC inclusive), especially for higher-volume clients. However, due to the current situation, many truckers are no longer offering all-in rates. Fuel costs are unpredictable to the point that it is now difficult to forecast what they will look like next week, or even a few days ahead.
For example, fuel surcharge levels have increased significantly in the last few weeks, moving from around 28% to as high as 52%, leaving carriers and forwarders with little choice but to pass these additional costs onto their customers. Most truckers now update fuel surcharges weekly, with a maximum validity of seven days. Some are even implementing emergency fees of 10% to 12%.
While this approach may not seem ideal, it helps truckers protect themselves from sudden fuel price spikes.
How does this impact ocean freight?
Fuel costs directly affect bunker prices, and shipping lines pass them through via the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) and other surcharges. This year, these extra charges can add 5% to 15% to total shipping costs, with carriers adjusting their rates weekly.
We’re seeing rate validity periods get shorter. Sometimes, rates are now quoted for each shipment instead of the usual 15-day period.
In 2026, we are expecting surcharges to become more complex, as fuel is not just a variable cost anymore. It has become a key part of how ocean freight prices are set.
So, what does this mean for importers?
Unfortunately, it means more uncertainty.
Not only are you dealing with higher ocean freight, but you are also facing rising trucking costs and constantly changing surcharges. Even when base trucking rates appear stable, total costs rise due to higher fuel costs.
At this point, fuel isn’t just a temporary issue. It’s becoming a core part of how pricing is built. As a result, planning and forecasting have become increasingly complex for all stakeholders, including shippers, importers, freight forwarders, and carriers.
