Amid lingering uncertainty and policy fluctuations from the Trump administration, shipping consultancy Drewry issued a report yesterday predicting worldwide container volume at ports would see a decrease of 1% during 2025.
In its report, Drewry noted that U.S. tariff policies are directly responsible for the projected drop, as shipping demand and volume is down amid rising costs from tariffs. The consultancy also noted that global container shipping has only seen demand drop twice before since records began: during the 2009 financial crisis and during the Covid pandemic in 2020.
According to reporting from Reuters, Drewry is quoted as saying “Assuming that 2/3 of current tariffs remain in place, U.S. imports from China could fall by 40%.”
Trump Administration Beginning to Have Concerns, Leading to Potential Policy Shifts
Clearly, the Trump administration is beginning to take notice, as container data is starting to trickle in after two months of whipsawing tariff policy. As we reported yesterday, the U.S. is considering taking the first step in reducing tariffs on China from the current 145% level.
However, the new Drewry data shows that even with some modest steps towards reducing the tariff burden, keeping two-thirds of tariffs in place will still lead to drops. Therefore, the U.S. government may have to consider a different and more drastic tariff reduction strategy, if it hopes to revive a slowing economy.
Shippers are making decisions to reduce shipments globally into the U.S.
Many companies have begun the process of reducing or suspending orders of foreign goods into the U.S., whether it be from China, Vietnam, India, or other countries. Since the tariffs went into effect earlier this month, companies immediately saw costs increase, and are bracing for further increases.
Some shipping giants have already noticed huge swings in demand. Hapag-Lloyd announced that nearly a third of all shipments to the U.S. from China have been suspended or cancelled, due to the rising costs and uncertainty associated with tariffs.
Some shipping operators have noted that goods that were already on their way to the U.S. from foreign countries have been unloaded, as suppliers hope to get ahead of potentially higher tariffs. That short-term increase in volume may have masked much of the global drop that is now starting to take place.
For their part, global shipping carriers are activating contingency plans and making adjustments. Some carriers are reducing Pacific to the U.S. West Coast capacity amid falling demand. Some are sending smaller-sized vessels. And some are adjusting port schedules or eliminating some port calls altogether.
