Global trade partners across the Atlantic Ocean and around the world are preparing for substantial changes as the 90-day pause in U.S. tariffs comes to an end on July 9, 2025. This temporary suspension, initiated by President Donald Trump, was designed to give the U.S. and its trading partners, predominantly the European Union (E.U.), time to negotiate new trade agreements and potentially avoid drastic tariff increases. As the deadline approaches, ambiguity prevails among ocean carriers, importers, and exporters, who are preparing for potential changes in trade flows and costs.
Many shippers are waiting to see what will happen.
During the pause, ocean carriers maintained high capacity, anticipating a surge in shipments before or after the tariff changes took effect. Due to the tariff announcement many U.S. importers have adopted a cautious “wait-and-see” strategy, postponing major shipments until tariff levels become clearer.
The market expects a blanket 10% tariff on E.U. products to be reinstated, with additional tariffs likely on cars, steel, and aluminum. However, President Trump has indicated he could extend the pause if negotiations show promise, leaving open the possibility of further delays.
What does the end of the tariff pause mean?
The implications for both sides of the Atlantic are substantial. Rising tariffs could increase costs for American businesses and consumers, potentially fueling a nationwide fear of inflation and disrupting supply chains.
European exporters risk losing competitiveness in the U.S. market, especially if tariffs are imposed on key sectors such as automotive and metals. Meanwhile, uncertainty is prompting some companies to explore alternative logistics strategies, such as using free-trade zones or diverting shipments.
What the Trump Administration Will Do Next: No One Knows
As the July 9th deadline approaches, the Trump administration’s willingness to extend the pause for “good faith” negotiators adds a new level of unpredictability. The outcome of the ongoing U.S.-E.U. talks will be crucial in determining whether Trans-Atlantic trade continues smoothly or faces a new era of heightened protectionism and economic friction. The world will be watching the outcome of the end of this pause closely.
