In economics schools, global economic models are discussed based on certain key theories, and price determination occurs according to simple rules based on these theories. For example, according to classical and neoclassical economic theory, prices are shaped by the interaction of supply (production) and demand (consumer demand) in the market. If the price rises above equilibrium, a surplus of supply occurs, and unsold goods drive the price down. If the price falls below equilibrium, a surplus of demand (a shortage) occurs, buyers are willing to pay more, and the price rises. According to Keynesian theory, the market does not always find the right price or reach equilibrium on its own. If left alone, it can remain unstable or stay in a crisis for a long time, which is why government intervention may be necessary.
Today’s global logistics (supply chain management) and the new dynamics of international trade confirm that prices are no longer determined by old-world theories and that volatility is the new normal. Three main factors can be mentioned behind this “new normal”: geopolitical bottlenecks and working capital pressures, a shift from stability toward flexibility-focused strategies, and the rise of artificial intelligence and digitalization. The main focus of these factors seems to be a shift away from fast and low-cost supply chain management toward an economic model where security comes first, and where costs are relatively higher, but sustainability is prioritized.
In global maritime trade, the most commonly used routes are being disrupted by geopolitical risks and climate-related crises, which restrict companies’ raw material supply and cash flow, leading to a global working capital crisis. Looking at the current state of the main maritime trade routes, it is clear that these problems are not temporary but rather chronic, and a solution in the near future seems unlikely.
Geopolitical Bottlenecks and Working Capital Crisis
The current situation of the Suez Canal and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait
Because of the Red Sea crisis, Houthi attacks, and military activity in the Middle East, this is one of the regions with the highest geopolitical risk. Even though some services under CMA CGM, Maersk, and the Gemini partnership occasionally start controlled test transits through the canal, most container ships are still avoiding this route. The Suez Canal has stopped being a standard and safe corridor and has instead become a “risky alternative.”
Current situation of the Cape of Good Hope
Due to the risks on the Suez Canal and Red Sea route, it has become the main shipping route on the Asia–Europe line. Ships now have to go around the African continent, which extends their journey by 10 to 20 days and adds around $800–$1,500 per container in extra freight and insurance costs. This situation has also led to major congestion at ports in countries such as Singapore and India.
Current situation of the Panama Canal
The major crisis caused by the severe drought in 2023–2024 has largely improved, and daily ship transits have returned to normal capacity levels (about 37–38 ships per day). However, climate uncertainty has not fully disappeared. Due to the possible return of an El Niño weather pattern, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has reduced the maximum draft limit for large vessels to 15.09 meters (49.5 feet) starting from July 3, 2026. This makes it harder for very large ships to pass fully loaded and adds extra pressure to global logistics.
Current situation of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is a key hub for the global crude oil trade, and military tensions and the risk of blockades in the region are still at very high levels. Although the military clashes between the U.S.–Israel and Iran since February have shifted into ceasefire phases, ongoing uncertainty has kept daily ship traffic limited to around 24 cargo and supertankers, far below the pre-crisis average of about 138 transits per day. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have also affected not only oil flows but also shipments of materials like helium used in semiconductor (chip) factories, naphtha used in plastic production, and sulfur, which is critical for battery technologies. This situation has a direct impact on China’s manufacturing industry in particular.
Seeking New Strategies Focused on Flexibility Instead of Stability
The increase in global geopolitical risks and the fact that international trade has turned into a highly competitive environment has pushed international shipping indices to their highest levels in the last four years. The sharp rise in global freight and spot shipping prices is expected to directly increase consumer prices throughout 2026. This is forcing companies to adapt to new global conditions. In this new normal, for companies to survive, they need to move away from traditional cost-focused and efficiency-focused approaches toward systems that are resilient to shocks and more flexible.
The main flexibility strategies that global companies are using to reduce risks and quickly adapt to crises are as follows:
1. Nearshoring / Friendshoring
It is observed that large manufacturers are moving away from relying on a single supplier or a single region and are shifting toward multi-sourcing and diversified transport models. Instead of depending on one hub like the Far East, companies are now either bringing production and suppliers closer to their main markets or relocating them to politically more reliable countries. This has become a core strategy for businesses today.
2. Multi-sourcing
Manufacturers are moving away from relying on a single supplier for critical raw materials and components and instead building backup supplier networks.
3. Shift from JIT to JIC
Just-in-time production helps minimize costs, but in today’s uncertain global trade environment it also creates vulnerability to unexpected shocks. Because of this, companies are shifting from zero-inventory models to keeping “just in case” stock levels for safety.
4. Artificial Intelligence and Digitalization
The use of artificial intelligence in global logistics and international trade is accelerating processes and making the transition to smart ecosystems easier. On the other hand, according to the World Trade Organization and the OECD, AI is expected to increase global trade by 14% and reduce logistics costs by up to 60%. Today, it can be said that transformation has already started in two main areas and is increasingly becoming more influential.
5. Self-managing supply chain
Artificial intelligence is no longer just a tool for tracking developments and creating basic reports. It can now make real-time decisions and automate processes without human intervention. From the carrier side, AI agents are being used that can automatically change routes in real time in case of port congestion or bad weather and even negotiate freight prices autonomously. On the manufacturer side, machine learning algorithms can manage inventory by analyzing global market trends, social media, and sales data with almost zero error, making supply chain planning much more precise and efficient.
6. Smart documentation and customs transformation
One of the best examples of this is the shift to electronic bills of lading (eBL). This reduces billions of dollars in paperwork costs in international trade and helps prevent document fraud through blockchain-based systems. On the customs side, AI-based systems can verify customs declarations and product codes within seconds, reducing administrative costs by up to 30% and compliance costs by up to 60%.
The big picture
As a result, it is understood that companies can survive in today’s economic conditions by quickly adapting to global developments and by shifting to flexible management systems supported by artificial intelligence.
