Last month, China launched a container ship in what should have been another routine journey. However, this particular vessel Istanbul Bridge took a different route than usual. With Europe as its destination, it sailed north towards the Arctic Ocean, rather than west through the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Africa. In taking this new route, a Chinese ship was pushing along a new route that China is seeking to forge: the so-called “Polar Silk Road”.
How is a “Polar Silk Road” possible today after the area was off-limits for decades?
For many years, moving any ship through Arctic waters – especially large ones like container ships – was very difficult, if not impossible. After all, polar ice blanketed the area nearly the entire year, and space was extremely limited. In the 21st century, though, climate change has opened a massive opportunity for ships to move through the northern polar region. If ships are able to traverse the Arctic Ocean, the thinking goes, voyages will be shorter and more efficient.
China has sought to take advantage of the changing climate to utilize the Arctic Ocean as a transport route. With polar ice melting faster than expected, the opportunity has emerged sooner than conventional wisdom suggested.
Why does China seek a “Polar Silk Road” route for shipping and trade?
This century, China has sought to build key economic and trade relationships with countries in the region surrounding China’s vast borders. It has spent much of the past decade trying to re-create the historic “Silk Road” trade route by partnering with nations to invest in and construct new roads, bridges, tunnels, rail routes, and other infrastructure in Central Asia. In return for accepting Chinese government investment, countries then owe China for loans. In essence, the “Silk Road” initiative (also known as the Belt and Road Initiative) has been a way for China to flex its so-called “soft power” with regional partners to build its influence.
Covid ruined many of those plans for China, as some countries defaulted on their loans to China and construction stopped on many Silk Road-related initiatives. The “Polar Silk Road” offers China another opportunity to expand its influence. China sees the northern polar region and Arctic Ocean as a strategic opportunity. After all, if it controls transport in the area, it will have more “soft power” among nations when compared to the U.S. and European Union (E.U.)
Is the Arctic Ocean finally ripe for commercial shipping activity?
Right now, the “Polar Silk Road” is at the very beginning of its origins. The ship that recently traversed the area was not a routine voyage that shipped many times before. Istanbul Bridge is one of the first vessels to make multiple stops along the journey. Previously, the route was limited to very specialized cargo shipments.
Additionally, the Arctic Ocean is relatively ice-free only for a few months throughout the year (summer and fall), which further limits the use of the area for commercial shipping.
China, for its part, is hyping up the journey of Istanbul Bridge as the beginning of a new era. Ningbo Customs, a Chinese government agency, called the voyage a “major breakthrough” and framed it as part of a longer-term shipping plan for regular voyages through the Arctic Ocean and northern polar region.
If China is successful, and can replicate the voyage taken by Istanbul Bridge, it will change shipping by providing an alternative route. Other countries will likely join and undertake their own voyages. And, if put into regular service, the route will be half as long as the Suez Canal – a boon for faster shipping.
What to watch for
Time will tell if demand is there for such a shipping route. Conventional wisdom says yes due to the shorter shipping times, alternative route, etc. However, there are risks. The environment is much harsher and more unpredictable than traditional shipping routes. Temperatures are colder, icebergs are prevalent, weather cycles are chaotic, and it is a generally untried route compared to the Suez Canal. Due to these risks, if anyone is injured or killed during these voyages, that will likely temper demand.
