One of the most notable developments in ocean shipping in recent weeks has been the return of container lines to the Suez Canal and Red Sea route. However, this return does not mean that the security risks have completely disappeared. On the contrary, the shipping industry is facing two different developments at the same time: Suez Canal traffic is recovering, while the risk around the Bab al-Mandab Strait is increasing again.
According to Lloyd’s List data, the number of vessels passing through the Suez Canal increased by 28% year-on-year in August, making it the busiest month since December 2023. At the same time, Bab al-Mandab Strait crossings fell by 49% compared with the previous month. This shows that the return to Suez has started, but the Red Sea region has not fully returned to normal yet.
Why are carriers returning now?
One of the clearest examples is the decision by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd under their Gemini Cooperation. The two companies have started operating the AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2 services through the Suez Canal again instead of using the Cape of Good Hope route. These services follow the services that returned to Suez in July and August. The companies have also stated that their decisions depend on stable security conditions in the region.
CMA CGM is also returning some services to the Suez Canal. The company announced that its FAL1 service will use the Suez Canal from the beginning of October on the westbound Asia–North Europe route, while the eastbound service will continue via the Cape of Good Hope for now.
So, carriers are not treating the situation as if “the Red Sea is completely safe.” Instead, we are seeing a selective and controlled return.
But the security situation is different
The restart of attacks against commercial vessels in September shows that the security risks on the Red Sea route have not disappeared. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies reports that 12 attacks or attempted attacks against commercial vessels have been recorded in the southern Red Sea since July.
For this reason, the main question in the market today is not only “Are carriers returning to Suez?” but also “How sustainable is this return?”
Why does this matter for freight rates?
The return to the Suez route can shorten transit times on the Asia–Europe trade and also release part of the vessel capacity currently being used on the Cape of Good Hope route. If the market continues to normalize, this could put downward pressure on capacity and freight rates.
In fact, as the return to Suez gains momentum, Asia–Europe spot freight rates have also started to decline. However, it is important to note that capacity will not return to the previous routes all at once. The normalization is still limited on the Asia–Europe eastbound trade, while the return is moving faster on the Europe–Asia direction.
Therefore, instead of saying that “the crisis is over,” it is more accurate to say that the operational impact of the crisis is gradually changing.
What will shape the market in the coming period?
Going forward, freight rates in the Red Sea market will not be driven only by cargo demand. Which services carriers decide to move back through the Suez Canal, how security conditions develop around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and how much capacity carriers are willing to move back to the region will all be important factors.
