It had been several weeks of détente between the U.S. and Iran during most of June, and commercial shipping traffic in and near the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of trending towards returning to more normal volumes.
Iran attacks another cargo vessel, setting the stage for no end to safety concerns
Then, Iran struck a commercial cargo vessel, Ever Lovely, with a drone attack in the Strait of Hormuz this past week, and the U.S. followed suit with its own strikes against Iranian targets in the region. Almost instantly, hopes for a return to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz were dashed and pushed back even further.
The last month has seen a familiar cycle play out: the U.S. and Iran both trade military strikes and strong words between Thursday and Sunday each week, and then on Sundays, one of the two countries puts out a statement saying they’ve agreed to talk. The problem is, for commercial shipping, these types of statements offer hope that is soon dashed, and the larger issues at hand: uncertainty and safety, are both at risk.
Why the climate of uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz is likely to continue
With both countries looking to show the other that they are willing to risk more military conflict to win a strategic victory in the Middle East, that uncertainty is likely to continue.
Even though the ceasefire agreement signed by both countries addresses many issues, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the Strait of Hormuz and its overall status. For one thing, the Iranians and the U.S. have both shown a willingness to charge vessels to transit the strait. Additionally, the U.S. is demanding that the Iranians withdraw their support and alliance with a variety of proxies in the Middle East, including U.S.-designated terrorist groups the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah.
Is a return to the status-quo before this year’s conflict possible?
Prior to the U.S.-Iran conflict, Iran did not control the Strait of Hormuz. Many shipping companies may be looking for the days of pre-war in the strait. It’s unclear at this time if that pre-war era will ever return for the Strait of Hormuz. And if it doesn’t, shippers will have to adapt to rules set by whatever authority is ultimately given the legitimacy and power to control the strategic waterway.
The U.S. continues to say it will never allow the Iranians to control the Strait of Hormuz and calls it an “international waterway.” However, President Donald Trump has shown reluctance towards escalating the Iran-U.S. conflict further and gaining full control over the strait would likely require some kind of “boots on the ground” by U.S. military forces.
How close was the Strait of Hormuz towards returning to “normal” before this past week’s attack?
So, how many ships have actually transited the Strait of Hormuz? This past week, according to various data and reporting publicly available, at least 171 vessels had passed through the strategic waterway. Before the war began earlier this year, there were approximately 130 vessels that transited the Strait of Hormuz daily. That means an average of at least 910 ships per week, so we are still well below those levels.
All of those figures point to a long way off before shipping will truly resemble anything close to normal in the Middle East.
