Since the Israel-Gaza war began on October 7th, the shipping world’s focus has been on the Red Sea, where Houthi terrorists have been attacking commercial vessels. As a result, shippers had to change routes to go around Africa rather than through the Suez Canal.
Now, Russia has gotten involved in attacks on commercial shipping with its first known attack on a commercial shipping vessel.
According to Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, an Russian missile hit a cargo vessel, Aya, in the Black Sea. The vessel was carrying wheat grain and headed to Egypt. The war between Russia and Ukraine has, to date, lasted over two years and has not seen any escalation into targeting commercial shipping vessels.
Assuming Russia confirms its involvement in the missile strike on the grain vessel, it would mark a serious escalation in the conflict, and would provide a new level of chaos and uncertainty for the global supply chain and shipping.
According to President Zelensky, Russia used cruise missiles fired from strategic bombers to attack the vessel. No one was killed or injured onboard the ship. The missile hit the ship’s side.
What does the attack mean for the shipping industry and global supply chain?
Earlier in the Russia-Ukraine war, international agreements were brokered – often with the support of countries such as Turkey or Egypt – that said neither party would attack commercial vessels carrying food staples such as grains. Those agreements then expired, and the world had expected some attacks, but they never happened.
Ukraine is a leading exporter of grain. Grain supports the Ukrainian economy and regional food security. After initially being blockaded by Russia in the Black Sea, Ukraine successfully drove Russia’s fleet out of the Black Sea, and established supremacy there.
The shipping industry is now watching to see if this latest escalation leads to further volatility. The attack alone is enough to put some pressure on grain futures, but it would be a much bigger deal if further attacks followed and a regular pattern emerged. For its part, the U.S. is considering providing further weapons to Ukraine which should help it defend against these attacks in the short and medium-term.
