For decades, American Presidents, policymakers, diplomats, and the public were wary of direct conflict with Iran over fears that any war with Iran would affect oil trade and global maritime transportation.
Specifically, in many conversations over the years, the Strait of Hormuz would be mentioned amid fears Iran would close or blockade it. The fears were not unfounded, as Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz quickly after the 1979 Iranian Revolution during the Iran-Iraq War, and threatened such closures multiple times over the past four decades.
So, when the U.S. decided to launch military strikes on Iran nearly two weeks ago, it was on the mind of nearly all shippers worldwide that Iran would consider using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in the nascent conflict. Since then, Iran has done exactly that, and chaos has broken out in the Strait of Hormuz and the greater Middle East region.
How Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz have changed since the beginning of the 2026 war
Following the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Iranian government first broadcasted warnings against any ships considering traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, alluding that the ships’ safety could not be guaranteed.
Then, after numerous vessels – particularly oil ships – continued to traverse the Strait of Hormuz in their journey to transport oil regionally and globally, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed on March 2nd, 2026. Several ships came under attack from Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC threatened to set ships completely on fire in retaliation for ignoring warnings there.
Since that time, the U.S. government and President Donald Trump have both stated on multiple occasions that the U.S. Navy may escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. However, that has not yet happened.
This week, chaos exploded in the Strait of Hormuz, and in global shipping, when three separate cargo ships were struck by Iranian forces and set ablaze there. And with that, global shipping is once again experiencing an acute crisis at a time that shipping was hoping for calmer times and more certainty after a chaotic decade.
How Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz have affected the global oil market
In a nutshell, the global oil market is experiencing a series of acute shocks and a global panic. This week has seen whipsawing prices with oil prices exceeding 2008 highs and then falling rapidly, only to increase again.
Global leaders are struggling to contain the oil crisis after the Iranian conflict, with the American government planning to release nearly half of all U.S. strategic petroleum reserve gasoline in an effort to reduce gas prices, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil yesterday.
What shippers are watching now in the Strait of Hormuz
This week, reports suggested the Iranian government and its proxies had successfully deployed approximately one dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz, with plans to significantly increase the presence of mines there. If these reports are accurate, more cargo ships will be forced to transport goods another way or forestall voyages.
If the presence of more mines is confirmed, this will further shut down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz which will surely lead to more fluctuation of prices, as well as chaos and disruption.
It is unclear whether global talks with Iran, being led by France and Italy, will result in a deal on the Strait of Hormuz. Using the Strait as leverage remains one of Iran’s most potent tools in the conflict, so a deal will be difficult.
At the same time, the world is watching U.S. policymakers and President Trump to see what the next steps are in the war. Brent crude oil prices are now back over $100 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices are nearing $100 per barrel for the first time since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in early 2022. Rising oil prices are likely to put pressure on global policymakers to make hard decisions regarding the Iran war.
