It’s hard to believe, but in just five days, America is voting to elect its next president. The candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, have two very different visions for the country. A big part of that vision is for trade and by extension, shipping and the supply chain. How do the candidates differ on key issues relating to those areas?
Former President Donald Trump: The Republican Nominee for President
Former President Donald Trump, a Republican, served four years in office. During that time, he took a mixture of protectionist and free-trade policies, with the scale leaning towards protectionism. Tariffs became a household name again, after largely fading out of obscurity over the past 25 years. Towards the end of the first Trump presidency, President Trump adopted very hawkish tariff stances, particularly towards China.
In a second Trump term, the former President has vowed to step up tariffs, and him and his surrogates, including Elon Musk, have warned that those tariffs will increase short-term pain for Americans, as prices may increase.
We would also likely see fewer pro-union bills signed into law under a Trump presidency. This would weaken the bargaining position of striking logistics workers, such as the recent port strike.
President Trump, if he serves a second term, is likely to seek to reduce U.S. dependence on the overseas production of goods, and will seek to bring supply chains back to America. Whether that costs more for consumers could be a factor that complicates that, however.
Vice President Kamala Harris: The Democratic Nominee for President
Vice President Kamala Harris has served in that position for nearly four years, and prior to that, was a U.S. Senator for California. During that time, she presided, along with President Biden, over the Covid pandemic and recovery. There have been many supply chain issues during that time. Many of those issues have been outside of the control of politicians, short of direct government intervention.
In a hypothetical Kamala Harris presidency, trade will likely see a swing back to more pro-free trade stances. President Biden was famously a “pro-union” President, but in a Harris administration, free trade is likely to be the norm. There would likely be a pivot towards a renewed Asian free-trade deal similar to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Trump withdrew America from.
With a strong economy, the presidency under Kamala Harris may continue Biden’s trend of building more technology components in the U.S., while seeking to diversify supply chains and reduce America’s reliance on overseas supply chains. Once again, as is the case with Trump, bringing large elements of the supply chain back within America’s borders may pass costs on to consumers.
No matter who wins, an area that will change is immigration, and by extension, workers within the supply chain and logistics industry.
President Trump famously ran as an anti-immigration candidate, but governed largely as a pro-legal immigration President. In a second term, he has vowed to crack down on undocumented immigrants. However, in reality, he and Vice President Harris are likely to both be pro-immigration, as immigration helps the U.S. economy. More skilled workers from overseas will be needed to fill key jobs in manufacturing, technology, and the supply chain, should either candidate seek to bring the supply chain back to U.S. shores.
