From 2024 to 2026, the global fleet size is expected to grow by 13%-16%, while global containerized trade is projected to grow only 3%-5%. This clearly points to a significant capacity surplus in the years ahead. However, for U.S. exporters, several factors are still in play, such as the Suez Canal situation, port congestion, and tariffs, to name a few. So, what should we expect in 2026?
2025 was an interesting year for shipping.
First, let’s look at 2025. It has been an interesting year for U.S. exporters. We started the year with heavy congestion across most transshipment services. Major hubs such as Cartagena, Kingston, Antwerp, Tangier, Jebel Ali, Busan, Singapore, and a few others experienced serious congestion. Normally, this would be expected to push ocean freight rates higher, but instead we saw mixed signals.
One of the main reasons was tariffs and the uncertainty they created. Some carriers still had extra capacity and wanted to fill their vessels, so they were reluctant to increase rates. Others did raise their prices. As a result, we saw freight rate differences of 20%-40% between carriers on trades to South America, Africa, Scandinavia, the East Mediterranean, and the Middle East. This put shippers in a difficult position: everyone wanted the lower rates, but congestion forced carriers to reduce capacity on certain sailings, so shippers had to ship with higher freight rates.
As the year progressed, some hubs improved. Cartagena, Colombia, for example, showed better performance following the Gemini cooperation between Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk. On the other hand, ports like Antwerp and Tangier did not see much improvement and they are still struggling today.
The Suez Canal Situation
Regarding the Suez Canal, transit remained very limited throughout the year. With ongoing peace talks in the region and the Houthis’ ceasefire announcement on November 11, expectations have become more positive. Still, signals remain mixed as both conflict and negotiations continue. Based on our discussions with ocean carriers, many do not expect a major trade shift by 2026 from Cape of Good Hope to the Suez Canal.
If the canal were to fully reopen to pre-crisis levels, the short-term and long-term impacts would likely be very different. In the short term, congestion at European and Mediterranean hubs could worsen, as vessels begin arriving both via Suez and around the Cape of Good Hope. This could create a perfect storm, with ships lining up outside transshipment ports. In the long term, however, more than 1 million TEUs of capacity would return to the market, which could significantly push rates down globally.
So, what should U.S. exporters expect for freight rates in 2026?
- East Coast-South America: Rates should remain stable, as current levels are already quite low.
- West Coast-South America: Rates may soften slightly if capacity increases. The key factor will be how smaller carriers manage congestion and transshipment routings.
- Northern Europe: For direct ports, there will be pressure to lower rates. For ports served via transshipment, rates are likely to stay at current high levels, with no major reductions expected in the first two quarters.
- Africa: This remains the biggest unknown. With lower global freight rates and limited export strength from African ports, carriers may not have much appetite to add capacity. Continued congestion at transshipment and destination ports will also remain a challenge.
- India / Middle East: I expect rates, especially from the U.S. East Coast to India, to soften. Trade has been negatively impacted this year by tariffs between the two countries. Following President Modi’s positive comments last week, we may see corrections from both sides, which could boost Indian exports. This may encourage carriers to position more equipment in India and potentially expand service capacity for U.S. exports.
- Mediterranean: This is traditionally competitive trade. However, transshipment ports in the Med remain congested, making second-leg availability tight and prices higher. Direct ports from East Coast continue to attract carriers and should remain low and stable. Transshipment services will likely stay under pressure, with higher rates until Suez fully reopens and get some of the pressure of Europe hubs.
- Asia: Rates to Asia remain competitive. Ports served via transshipment are the only ones still seeing high three- to four-digit rates from the East Coast and Gulf. We expect this situation to continue through at least the first half of the year. In 2026, inventory replenishment for U.S. importers will be necessary. During peak season, carriers may add vessels and port calls, which could ease pressure on transshipment services and lead to weaker rates in the second half of the year.
To wrap it up, 2026 will bring excess capacity on a global scale.
For U.S. exporters, this will be a shipper’s market on direct lanes and on routes without transshipment congestion. However, for trades that move through congested hubs, rates will remain higher, and space will continue to be a challenge.
Because of this, it will be critical for shippers to have healthy cooperation with their service providers, where customers should enjoy the lower rates just as much as they can enjoy the space for those challenging lanes.
