Current Sanction Landscape
It has been a decade since the United States, the European Union, and several Western countries imposed complex sanctions on Syria, with the aim of pressuring the regime of Bashar al-Assad to cease human rights violations and adhere to international laws.
Among the sanctions imposed by the United States, there are severe restrictions on commercial ocean freight, designed to prevent shipments that could support the regime’s war efforts. During the conflict, the al-Assad government has primarily relied on support from Russia and Iran for resources. However, with the recent changes in Syria’s government, the new administration will require significant resources for infrastructure development and humanitarian needs in the wake of the country’s war-torn state.
Potential for Sanction Relief
Any potential for sanction relief will depend largely on a dramatic shift in Syria’s political and democratic landscape. The new Syrian government may be able to pave the way for a reduction in Western sanctions, depending on the actions it takes. According to the United States’ declarations on sanctions, relief could be contingent on significant reforms in areas such as international human rights, humanitarian actions, democratic reforms, political freedoms, and a fundamental shift in Syria’s political direction.
Commercial sanctions are part of a broader strategy to economically isolate the Syrian government and pressure it to change its behavior. The United States has made it clear that any potential relief will hinge on tangible steps toward peace in the region, the end of political repression, and a commitment to engage in political dialogue.
Moreover, the U.S. maintains these sanctions not only in response to the Syrian government’s previous political actions but also as a means of signaling to the international community the importance of respecting international law and human rights. The imposition of sanctions on commercial ocean freight, for example, demonstrates that violations of international norms can have severe economic consequences, acting as a powerful deterrent. Consequently, this sends a clear message to the new Syrian government that sanctions will persist unless substantial policy changes occur.
Summary of the Situation
In conclusion, while a change in the Syrian government could theoretically open the door for sanction relief, it is highly unlikely that sanctions will be lifted without significant changes in the government’s policies regarding human rights, international law, and political freedoms. The existing sanctions have proven to be effective tools for pressuring the Assad regime, and they continue to serve as a serious deterrent to the new government’s potential non-compliance with international norms. Given the increased demand for resources in Syria due to the prolonged civil war, and the reduced or ceased support from Russia and Iran, the impact of sanctions may be even more severe for the new government than they were for the previous regime.